Tankan Outline (March 2019)
April 1, 2019
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,047 | 5,783 | 9,830 | ( 99.4%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,007 | 915 | 1,922 | ( 99.3%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,048 | 1,703 | 2,751 | ( 99.5%) |
Small Enterprises | 1,992 | 3,165 | 5,157 | ( 99.4%) |
[Responding Period: February 25 to March 29]
Dec. 2018 Survey | March 2019 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2018 | 109.41 | 109.50 |
1H | 109.56 | 109.64 |
2H | 109.26 | 109.38 |
FY2019 | - | 108.87 |
1H | - | 108.80 |
2H | - | 108.93 |
Dec. 2018 | March 2019 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 15) | ||||
19 | 12 | -7 | 8 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 20) | ||||
24 | 21 | -3 | 20 | -1 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 11) | ||||
17 | 7 | -10 | 3 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 13) | ||||
17 | 18 | +1 | 12 | -6 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 8) | ||||
14 | 6 | -8 | -2 | -8 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 5) | ||||
11 | 12 | +1 | 5 | -7 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 10) | ||||
16 | 12 | -4 | 7 | -5 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Dec. 2018 | March 2019 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -1 | -6 | -5 | -6 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -11 | -16 | -5 | -18 | -2 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 3 | -5 | -8 | -4 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | -6 | -9 | -3 | -12 | -3 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 6 | 8 | +2 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 10 | 13 | +3 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 2 | 8 | +6 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 9 | 12 | +3 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 6 | 1 | -5 | -2 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | 4 | 3 | -1 | 5 | +2 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 24 | 17 | -7 | 16 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 41 | 37 | -4 | 40 | +3 |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.3 | -1.1 | 0.5 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.8 | -0.4 | 1.1 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.5 | -0.6 | 1.4 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.9 | 0.0 | 2.3 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 1.9 | +0.2 | 0.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.4 | +0.4 | -0.4 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 2.4 | -0.3 | 0.8 | - |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -1.9 | -2.0 | -1.3 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.9 | +0.9 | -1.3 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.9 | -3.2 | 2.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.1 | +0.1 | -1.5 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -2.8 | -3.4 | 0.3 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -4.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | -1.5 | -0.7 | -0.7 | - |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY2019 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.17 | -0.08 | 8.02 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.43 | +0.08 | 6.28 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.20 | -0.14 | 5.24 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.74 | +0.01 | 3.60 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.49 | -0.17 | 4.50 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.35 | -0.01 | 3.41 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 5.61 | -0.02 | 5.52 | - |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 11.0 | -4.0 | 6.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 15.7 | +1.9 | -1.6 | - |
All industries | 13.9 | -0.3 | 1.2 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.9 | -4.5 | -5.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.8 | +0.1 | -7.5 | - |
All industries | 9.2 | -1.7 | -6.6 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 12.7 | -2.2 | -6.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -7.1 | +6.5 | -20.1 | - |
All industries | -0.7 | +3.1 | -14.9 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 11.1 | -3.8 | 2.0 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 10.0 | +2.4 | -5.6 | - |
All industries | 10.4 | 0.0 | -2.8 | - |
- Excludes software and R&D investment.
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2019 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.7 | -1.2 | 3.4 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 12.9 | +0.7 | 0.6 | - |
All industries | 10.0 | -0.3 | 2.1 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.9 | -4.2 | -2.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 10.9 | -2.3 | 1.1 | - |
All industries | 10.4 | -3.1 | -0.3 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 12.8 | -2.7 | -4.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -3.8 | +4.7 | -12.6 | - |
All industries | 2.3 | +1.5 | -9.1 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.4 | -1.7 | 2.0 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.7 | +0.8 | -1.3 | - |
All industries | 9.1 | -0.5 | 0.4 | - |
Dec. 2018 | March 2019 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -5 | -2 | +3 | -2 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -4 | -2 | +2 | -4 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -7 | -4 | +3 | -5 | -1 |
All Enterprises | -6 | -3 | +3 | -4 | -1 |
Dec. 2018 | March 2019 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -23 | -23 | 0 | -24 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -34 | -35 | -1 | -35 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -39 | -39 | 0 | -42 | -3 |
All Enterprises | -35 | -35 | 0 | -36 | -1 |
Dec. 2018 | March 2019 | Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 23 | 22 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 23 | 22 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 12 | 12 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 17 | 16 | -1 |
Dec. 2018 | March 2019 | Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 25 | 25 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 27 | 27 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 21 | 21 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 24 | 24 | 0 |
Dec. 2018 | March 2019 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2019 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 2 | -1 | -3 | 5 | +6 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 0 | -2 | -2 | 5 | +7 |
Small Enterprises | -2 | -2 | 0 | 5 | +7 |
All Enterprises | -1 | -1 | 0 | 5 | +6 |
Dec. 2018 | March 2019 | Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 34 | 32 | -2 |