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Tankan Outline (December 2018)

December 14, 2018
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises
	Manu- facturing	Nonmanu- facturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises	4,059	5,801	9,860	( 99.6%)
of which Large Enterprises	1,009	915	1,924	( 99.8%)
Medium-sized Enterprises	1,052	1,708	2,760	( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises	1,998	3,178	5,176	( 99.6%)

[Responding Period: November 13 to December 13]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
	June 2018 Survey	Sept. 2018 Survey	Dec. 2018 Survey
FY2017	110.79	-	-
1H	110.97	-	-
2H	110.63	-	-
FY2018	107.26	107.40	109.41
1H	107.27	107.52	109.56
2H	107.26	107.29	109.26

Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
	Sept. 2018	Dec. 2018	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2019 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 19)
Manufacturing	19	19	0	15	-4
Nonmanufacturing		( 22)
Nonmanufacturing	22	24	+2	20	-4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 13)
Manufacturing	15	17	+2	11	-6
Nonmanufacturing		( 15)
Nonmanufacturing	18	17	-1	13	-4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 11)
Manufacturing	14	14	0	8	-6
Nonmanufacturing		( 5)
Nonmanufacturing	10	11	+1	5	-6
[All Enterprises]
All industries		( 12)
All industries	15	16	+1	10	-6

(Notes)

FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
	Sept. 2018	Dec. 2018	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2019 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	1	-1	-2	-2	-1
Small Enterprises	-9	-11	-2	-14	-3
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	4	3	-1	0	-3
Small Enterprises	-4	-6	-2	-8	-2
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	7	6	-1	-	-
Small Enterprises	10	10	0	-	-
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	3	2	-1	-	-
Small Enterprises	7	9	+2	-	-
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	7	6	-1	1	-5
Small Enterprises	5	4	-1	6	+2
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	27	24	-3	20	-4
Small Enterprises	41	41	0	42	+1

Sales (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2017	Revision rate	FY2018 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	5.6	-	3.4	+0.7
Nonmanufacturing	5.9	-	3.2	+1.2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.3	-	4.1	+0.2
Nonmanufacturing	2.8	-	3.0	+0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.2	-	1.7	+0.1
Nonmanufacturing	2.4	-	1.0	+0.5
[All Enterprises]
All industries	4.4	-	2.7	+0.7

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2017	Revision rate	FY2018 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	20.8	-	0.1	+7.6
Nonmanufacturing	14.3	-	-1.7	+0.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	1.6	-	6.3	+3.3
Nonmanufacturing	4.7	-	-0.2	+0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.0	-	0.6	-0.4
Nonmanufacturing	-0.5	-	-4.4	+0.6
[All Enterprises]
All industries	12.0	-	-0.8	+2.9

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
	FY2017	Changes	FY2018 (Forecast)	Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	8.52	-	8.25	+0.53
Nonmanufacturing	6.67	-	6.35	-0.03
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	5.23	-	5.34	+0.17
Nonmanufacturing	3.85	-	3.73	0.00
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.71	-	4.66	-0.02
Nonmanufacturing	3.55	-	3.36	0.00
[All Enterprises]
All industries	5.83	-	5.63	+0.13

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2017	Revision rate	FY2018 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	6.3	-	15.6	-1.6
Nonmanufacturing	2.9	-	13.5	+2.3
All industries	4.1	-	14.3	+0.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	12.7	-	15.0	-1.9
Nonmanufacturing	11.6	-	8.6	+4.7
All industries	12.0	-	11.1	+1.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	0.6	-	15.2	+3.2
Nonmanufacturing	-1.0	-	-12.8	+6.4
All industries	-0.5	-	-3.7	+5.2
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	6.3	-	15.4	-0.9
Nonmanufacturing	3.4	-	7.5	+3.3
All industries	4.4	-	10.4	+1.7

Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2017	Revision rate	FY2018 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.8	-	8.9	-0.6
Nonmanufacturing	5.7	-	12.1	+0.9
All industries	4.6	-	10.4	+0.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	9.3	-	14.7	-2.5
Nonmanufacturing	9.9	-	13.5	+2.3
All industries	9.7	-	14.0	+0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.0	-	15.9	+2.2
Nonmanufacturing	-2.4	-	-8.1	+2.2
All industries	-0.1	-	0.8	+2.2
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	4.4	-	10.3	-0.6
Nonmanufacturing	4.8	-	8.8	+1.3
All industries	4.6	-	9.6	+0.3

Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
	Sept. 2018	Dec. 2018	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2019 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-5	-5	0	-4	+1
Medium-sized Enterprises	-6	-4	+2	-5	-1
Small Enterprises	-8	-7	+1	-9	-2
All Enterprises	-6	-6	0	-6	0

Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
	Sept. 2018	Dec. 2018	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2019 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-23	-23	0	-24	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	-33	-34	-1	-37	-3
Small Enterprises	-37	-39	-2	-43	-4
All Enterprises	-33	-35	-2	-38	-3

Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
	Sept. 2018	Dec. 2018	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	23	23	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	24	23	-1
Small Enterprises	12	12	0
All Enterprises	18	17	-1

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
	Sept. 2018	Dec. 2018	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	26	25	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	28	27	-1
Small Enterprises	21	21	0
All Enterprises	24	24	0

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
	Sept. 2018	Dec. 2018	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2019 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	1	2	+1	9	+7
Medium-sized Enterprises	0	0	0	8	+8
Small Enterprises	-2	-2	0	6	+8
All Enterprises	-1	-1	0	8	+9

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
	Sept. 2018	Dec. 2018	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	39	34	-5