Statistics

Home > Statistics > TANKAN > TANKAN (Outline) > Tankan Outline (September 2018)

Tankan Outline (September 2018)

October 1, 2018
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,070 5,831 9,901 ( 99.6%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,009 916 1,925 ( 99.7%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,053 1,717 2,770 ( 99.5%)
Small Enterprises 2,008 3,198 5,206 ( 99.5%)

[Responding Period: August 27 to September 28]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  June 2018 Survey Sept. 2018 Survey
FY2017 110.79 -
1H 110.97 -
2H 110.63 -
FY2018 107.26 107.40
1H 107.27 107.52
2H 107.26 107.29
Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  June 2018 Sept. 2018 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 21)      
21 19 -2 19 0
Nonmanufacturing   ( 21)      
24 22 -2 22 0
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 16)      
20 15 -5 13 -2
Nonmanufacturing   ( 16)      
20 18 -2 15 -3
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 12)      
14 14 0 11 -3
Nonmanufacturing   ( 5)      
8 10 +2 5 -5
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 13)      
16 15 -1 12 -3

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
  June 2018 Sept. 2018 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -2 1 +3 -1 -2
Small Enterprises -10 -9 +1 -12 -3
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 4 4 0 2 -2
Small Enterprises -3 -4 -1 -5 -1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 6 7 +1 - -
Small Enterprises 10 10 0 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 3 3 0 - -
Small Enterprises 7 7 0 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 5 7 +2 3 -4
Small Enterprises 5 5 0 6 +1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 30 27 -3 23 -4
Small Enterprises 43 41 -2 43 +2
Sales (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.6 - 2.8 +0.3
Nonmanufacturing 5.9 - 2.0 +0.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.3 - 4.0 +0.6
Nonmanufacturing 2.8 - 2.7 +0.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.2 - 1.6 +0.6
Nonmanufacturing 2.4 - 0.4 +0.7
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.4 - 2.1 +0.5

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 20.8 - -6.9 +1.9
Nonmanufacturing 14.3 - -2.4 +1.4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.6 - 2.9 +1.8
Nonmanufacturing 4.7 - -0.5 +1.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.0 - 0.9 +1.1
Nonmanufacturing -0.5 - -5.0 +1.5
[All Enterprises]
All industries 12.0 - -3.6 +1.6
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
  FY2017 Changes FY2018
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.52 - 7.72 +0.12
Nonmanufacturing 6.67 - 6.38 +0.06
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.23 - 5.17 +0.06
Nonmanufacturing 3.85 - 3.73 +0.03
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.71 - 4.68 +0.02
Nonmanufacturing 3.55 - 3.36 +0.03
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.83 - 5.50 +0.05
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.3 - 17.5 -0.3
Nonmanufacturing 2.9 - 11.0 -0.2
All industries 4.1 - 13.4 -0.3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.7 - 17.2 +0.4
Nonmanufacturing 11.6 - 3.7 +1.6
All industries 12.0 - 9.0 +1.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.6 - 11.6 +3.8
Nonmanufacturing -1.0 - -18.1 +3.9
All industries -0.5 - -8.4 +3.9
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.3 - 16.5 +0.5
Nonmanufacturing 3.4 - 4.0 +0.7
All industries 4.4 - 8.5 +0.6
  • Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017 Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.8 - 9.6 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing 5.7 - 11.1 -0.8
All industries 4.6 - 10.3 -0.6
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.3 - 17.6 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing 9.9 - 10.9 +1.5
All industries 9.7 - 13.8 +0.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.0 - 13.4 +3.6
Nonmanufacturing -2.4 - -10.1 +3.5
All industries -0.1 - -1.4 +3.5
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.4 - 10.9 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing 4.8 - 7.4 +0.2
All industries 4.6 - 9.2 +0.1
Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  June 2018 Sept. 2018 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -6 -5 +1 -3 +2
Medium-sized Enterprises -5 -6 -1 -6 0
Small Enterprises -8 -8 0 -10 -2
All Enterprises -6 -6 0 -7 -1
Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  June 2018 Sept. 2018 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -21 -23 -2 -23 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -32 -33 -1 -36 -3
Small Enterprises -35 -37 -2 -42 -5
All Enterprises -32 -33 -1 -37 -4
Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  June 2018 Sept. 2018 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 24 23 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 24 24 0
Small Enterprises 13 12 -1
All Enterprises 18 18 0
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  June 2018 Sept. 2018 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 26 26 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 29 28 -1
Small Enterprises 21 21 0
All Enterprises 25 24 -1
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  June 2018 Sept. 2018 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 0 1 +1 8 +7
Medium-sized Enterprises -2 0 +2 10 +10
Small Enterprises -4 -2 +2 6 +8
All Enterprises -3 -1 +2 7 +8
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  June 2018 Sept. 2018 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 40 39 -1