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Tankan Outline (March 2018)

April 2, 2018
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,110 5,910 10,020 ( 99.3%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,013 920 1,933 ( 99.6%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,064 1,753 2,817 ( 98.9%)
Small Enterprises 2,033 3,237 5,270 ( 99.4%)

[Responding Period: February 26 to March 30]

(Note) All figures are based on sample enterprises after the March 2018 revision.

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  Dec. 2017 Survey March 2018 Survey
FY2017 110.18 110.67
1H 110.70 110.95
2H 109.66 110.40
FY2018 - 109.66
1H - 109.63
2H - 109.68
Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  Dec. 2017 March 2018 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 21)      
26 24 -2 20 -4
Nonmanufacturing   ( 20)      
25 23 -2 20 -3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 15)      
20 19 -1 14 -5
Nonmanufacturing   ( 14)      
20 21 +1 16 -5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 11)      
15 15 0 12 -3
Nonmanufacturing   ( 4)      
9 10 +1 5 -5
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 12)      
16 17 +1 12 -5

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
  Dec. 2017 March 2018 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -1 0 +1 -2 -2
Small Enterprises -13 -9 +4 -12 -3
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises 3 4 +1 4 0
Small Enterprises -7 -3 +4 -4 -1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 7 6 -1 - -
Small Enterprises 10 8 -2 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 4 3 -1 - -
Small Enterprises 10 9 -1 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 1 4 +3 4 0
Small Enterprises 0 3 +3 6 +3
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 19 26 +7 22 -4
Small Enterprises 32 39 +7 42 +3
Sales (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.7 +0.5 1.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.7 +0.5 0.7 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.9 -0.1 2.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.2 0.0 2.1 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.6 +0.5 1.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 1.5 +0.7 0.0 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 3.5 +0.4 1.0 -

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 19.7 +4.0 -3.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.3 +2.1 -1.2 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.8 -0.2 -1.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 +3.2 0.5 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.9 +3.0 0.5 -
Nonmanufacturing -7.8 +0.7 -0.1 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 7.1 +2.6 -1.5 -
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
  FY2017
(Forecast)
Changes FY2018
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.52 +0.28 8.13 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.22 +0.10 6.10 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.21 0.00 4.99 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.72 +0.12 3.66 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.78 +0.12 4.75 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.32 0.00 3.31 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 5.62 +0.12 5.48 -
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.3 -3.0 4.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.0 0.0 0.8 -
All industries 5.2 -1.1 2.3 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 12.8 -4.0 15.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 7.7 +2.4 -1.7 -
All industries 9.7 -0.2 5.3 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -2.2 -2.7 -0.1 -
Nonmanufacturing -5.1 +5.0 -25.0 -
All industries -4.2 +2.3 -16.8 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.5 -3.2 6.0 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.7 +1.3 -4.5 -
All industries 4.0 -0.4 -0.7 -
  • Excludes software and R&D investment.
Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2018
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.7 -2.5 3.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.8 -0.2 2.0 -
All industries 5.1 -1.5 2.7 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.3 -4.5 17.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.2 +0.4 6.5 -
All industries 7.6 -1.8 11.2 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.7 -2.4 2.0 -
Nonmanufacturing -5.9 +1.0 -18.4 -
All industries -3.2 -0.3 -10.8 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.1 -2.7 4.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 4.4 +0.1 -0.7 -
All industries 4.2 -1.4 2.0 -
Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  Dec. 2017 March 2018 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -3 -4 -1 -4 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -4 -5 -1 -5 0
Small Enterprises -6 -7 -1 -7 0
All Enterprises -5 -5 0 -6 -1
Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  Dec. 2017 March 2018 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -19 -22 -3 -21 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises -33 -34 -1 -35 -1
Small Enterprises -35 -37 -2 -40 -3
All Enterprises -32 -34 -2 -34 0
Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  Dec. 2017 March 2018 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 25 23 -2
Medium-sized Enterprises 23 23 0
Small Enterprises 12 12 0
All Enterprises 17 17 0
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2017 March 2018 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 27 27 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 28 29 +1
Small Enterprises 21 22 +1
All Enterprises 25 25 0
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  Dec. 2017 March 2018 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 1 1 0 7 +6
Medium-sized Enterprises -3 -1 +2 7 +8
Small Enterprises -7 -5 +2 3 +8
All Enterprises -5 -3 +2 5 +8
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2017 March 2018 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 46 41 -5