Tankan Outline (March 2018)
April 2, 2018
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,110 | 5,910 | 10,020 | ( 99.3%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,013 | 920 | 1,933 | ( 99.6%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,064 | 1,753 | 2,817 | ( 98.9%) |
Small Enterprises | 2,033 | 3,237 | 5,270 | ( 99.4%) |
[Responding Period: February 26 to March 30]
(Note) All figures are based on sample enterprises after the March 2018 revision.
Dec. 2017 Survey | March 2018 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2017 | 110.18 | 110.67 |
1H | 110.70 | 110.95 |
2H | 109.66 | 110.40 |
FY2018 | - | 109.66 |
1H | - | 109.63 |
2H | - | 109.68 |
Dec. 2017 | March 2018 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 21) | ||||
26 | 24 | -2 | 20 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 20) | ||||
25 | 23 | -2 | 20 | -3 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 15) | ||||
20 | 19 | -1 | 14 | -5 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 14) | ||||
20 | 21 | +1 | 16 | -5 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 11) | ||||
15 | 15 | 0 | 12 | -3 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 4) | ||||
9 | 10 | +1 | 5 | -5 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 12) | ||||
16 | 17 | +1 | 12 | -5 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Dec. 2017 | March 2018 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -1 | 0 | +1 | -2 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -13 | -9 | +4 | -12 | -3 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 3 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -7 | -3 | +4 | -4 | -1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 7 | 6 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 10 | 8 | -2 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 4 | 3 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 10 | 9 | -1 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 1 | 4 | +3 | 4 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 0 | 3 | +3 | 6 | +3 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 19 | 26 | +7 | 22 | -4 |
Small Enterprises | 32 | 39 | +7 | 42 | +3 |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.7 | +0.5 | 1.4 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.7 | +0.5 | 0.7 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.9 | -0.1 | 2.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.1 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 2.6 | +0.5 | 1.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.5 | +0.7 | 0.0 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 3.5 | +0.4 | 1.0 | - |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 19.7 | +4.0 | -3.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.3 | +2.1 | -1.2 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.8 | -0.2 | -1.9 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.5 | +3.2 | 0.5 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.9 | +3.0 | 0.5 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -7.8 | +0.7 | -0.1 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 7.1 | +2.6 | -1.5 | - |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Changes | FY2018 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.52 | +0.28 | 8.13 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.22 | +0.10 | 6.10 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.21 | 0.00 | 4.99 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.72 | +0.12 | 3.66 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.78 | +0.12 | 4.75 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.32 | 0.00 | 3.31 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 5.62 | +0.12 | 5.48 | - |
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.3 | -3.0 | 4.9 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | - |
All industries | 5.2 | -1.1 | 2.3 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 12.8 | -4.0 | 15.6 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 7.7 | +2.4 | -1.7 | - |
All industries | 9.7 | -0.2 | 5.3 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -2.2 | -2.7 | -0.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -5.1 | +5.0 | -25.0 | - |
All industries | -4.2 | +2.3 | -16.8 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.5 | -3.2 | 6.0 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.7 | +1.3 | -4.5 | - |
All industries | 4.0 | -0.4 | -0.7 | - |
- Excludes software and R&D investment.
FY2017 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
FY2018 (Forecast) |
Revision rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.7 | -2.5 | 3.2 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.8 | -0.2 | 2.0 | - |
All industries | 5.1 | -1.5 | 2.7 | - |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.3 | -4.5 | 17.1 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.2 | +0.4 | 6.5 | - |
All industries | 7.6 | -1.8 | 11.2 | - |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 1.7 | -2.4 | 2.0 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | -5.9 | +1.0 | -18.4 | - |
All industries | -3.2 | -0.3 | -10.8 | - |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.1 | -2.7 | 4.6 | - |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.4 | +0.1 | -0.7 | - |
All industries | 4.2 | -1.4 | 2.0 | - |
Dec. 2017 | March 2018 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -3 | -4 | -1 | -4 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -4 | -5 | -1 | -5 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -6 | -7 | -1 | -7 | 0 |
All Enterprises | -5 | -5 | 0 | -6 | -1 |
Dec. 2017 | March 2018 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -19 | -22 | -3 | -21 | +1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -33 | -34 | -1 | -35 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -35 | -37 | -2 | -40 | -3 |
All Enterprises | -32 | -34 | -2 | -34 | 0 |
Dec. 2017 | March 2018 | Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 25 | 23 | -2 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 23 | 23 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 12 | 12 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 17 | 17 | 0 |
Dec. 2017 | March 2018 | Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 27 | 27 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 28 | 29 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 21 | 22 | +1 |
All Enterprises | 25 | 25 | 0 |
Dec. 2017 | March 2018 | Change between Dec. and March |
June 2018 (Forecast) |
Change between March and June | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | +6 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -3 | -1 | +2 | 7 | +8 |
Small Enterprises | -7 | -5 | +2 | 3 | +8 |
All Enterprises | -5 | -3 | +2 | 5 | +8 |
Dec. 2017 | March 2018 | Change between Dec. and March | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 46 | 41 | -5 |