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Tankan Outline (December 2017)

December 15, 2017
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises

Number of Sample Enterprises
Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total Response rate
All Enterprises 4,333 6,312 10,645 99.6%
of which Large Enterprises 1,074 1,023 2,097 99.6%
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,140 1,831 2,971 99.5%
Small Enterprises 2,119 3,458 5,577 99.6%

[Responding Period: November 14 to December 14]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
June 2017 Survey Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 Survey
FY2016 108.29 n.a. n.a.
1H 106.57 n.a. n.a.
2H 109.89 n.a. n.a.
FY2017 108.31 109.29 110.18
1H 108.36 109.46 110.69
2H 108.27 109.12 109.66

Business Conditions

[Large Enterprises]

Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing n.a. ( 19) n.a. n.a. n.a.
Manufacturing 22 25 +3 19 -6
Nonmanufacturing n.a. ( 19) n.a. n.a. n.a.
Nonmanufacturing 23 23 0 20 -3

[Medium-sized Enterprises]

Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing n.a. ( 13) n.a. n.a. n.a.
Manufacturing 17 19 +2 14 -5
Nonmanufacturing n.a. ( 14) n.a. n.a. n.a.
Nonmanufacturing 19 20 +1 14 -6

[Small Enterprises]

Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Manufacturing n.a. ( 8) n.a. n.a. n.a.
Manufacturing 10 15 +5 11 -4
Nonmanufacturing n.a. ( 4) n.a. n.a. n.a.
Nonmanufacturing 8 9 +1 5 -4

[All Enterprises]

Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
All industries n.a. ( 11) n.a. n.a. n.a.
All industries 15 16 +1 11 -5

(Notes)

  1. FY : fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H : first half (April - September)
    2H : second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -5 -2 +3 -3 -1
Small Enterprises -16 -13 +3 -15 -2

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 0 3 +3 1 -2
Small Enterprises -8 -7 +1 -6 +1

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 8 7 -1 n.a. n.a.
Small Enterprises 10 10 0 n.a. n.a.

Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 6 4 -2 n.a. n.a.
Small Enterprises 13 10 -3 n.a. n.a.

Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 0 1 +1 0 -1
Small Enterprises -2 0 +2 1 +1

Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 14 18 +4 18 0
Small Enterprises 28 33 +5 37 +4

Sales

[Large Enterprises]

Sales (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -2.9 n.a. 3.9 +1.2
Nonmanufacturing -3.8 n.a. 3.8 +0.9

[Medium-sized Enterprises]

Sales (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 0.1 n.a. 4.4 +0.9
Nonmanufacturing 0.9 n.a. 2.5 +0.1

[Small Enterprises]

Sales (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -0.3 n.a. 2.5 +0.7
Nonmanufacturing 0.8 n.a. 1.4 +0.7

[All Enterprises]

Sales (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries -1.5 n.a. 3.0 +0.8

(Note)

Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits

[Large Enterprises]

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -0.5 n.a. 15.0 +9.8
Nonmanufacturing 5.7 n.a. 4.9 +6.6

[Medium-sized Enterprises]

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 0.5 n.a. 4.2 +3.4
Nonmanufacturing 9.2 n.a. -2.2 +1.4

[Small Enterprises]

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 16.4 n.a. 0.7 +3.8
Nonmanufacturing 5.8 n.a. -6.0 +2.9

[All Enterprises]

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries 4.4 n.a. 5.2 +6.2

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

[Large Enterprises]

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
FY2016 Changes FY2017
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 7.33 n.a. 8.11 +0.64
Nonmanufacturing 5.87 n.a. 5.94 +0.32

[Medium-sized Enterprises]

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
FY2016 Changes FY2017
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 5.12 n.a. 5.11 +0.12
Nonmanufacturing 3.55 n.a. 3.39 +0.05

[Small Enterprises]

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
FY2016 Changes FY2017
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 4.60 n.a. 4.52 +0.14
Nonmanufacturing 3.66 n.a. 3.39 +0.07

[All Enterprises]

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
FY2016 Changes FY2017
(Forecast)
Changes
All industries 5.21 n.a. 5.31 +0.27

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *

[Large Enterprises]

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 4.3 n.a. 10.2 -3.4
Nonmanufacturing -5.4 n.a. 5.8 +1.8
All industries -2.1 n.a. 7.4 -0.3

[Medium-sized Enterprises]

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 6.3 n.a. 15.3 +1.8
Nonmanufacturing -3.1 n.a. 21.1 +1.2
All industries 0.2 n.a. 18.9 +1.5

[Small Enterprises]

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -6.7 n.a. 4.4 +3.5
Nonmanufacturing 16.3 n.a. -10.6 +11.5
All industries 8.8 n.a. -6.4 +8.9

[All Enterprises]

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 2.6 n.a. 10.1 -1.5
Nonmanufacturing -0.7 n.a. 4.3 +3.5
All industries 0.4 n.a. 6.3 +1.6
  • Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

[Large Enterprises]

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 0.7 n.a. 6.5 -1.3
Nonmanufacturing -3.1 n.a. 8.5 +1.4
All industries -1.0 n.a. 7.4 -0.1

[Medium-sized Enterprises]

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 8.8 n.a. 14.8 +0.7
Nonmanufacturing -7.1 n.a. 24.0 +0.9
All industries -1.0 n.a. 20.1 +0.8

[Small Enterprises]

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -7.4 n.a. 7.2 +2.3
Nonmanufacturing 18.6 n.a. -7.2 +8.0
All industries 8.7 n.a. -2.5 +5.9

[All Enterprises]

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
FY2016 Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 0.6 n.a. 7.4 -0.7
Nonmanufacturing 0.0 n.a. 7.7 +2.4
All industries 0.3 n.a. 7.5 +0.8

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -1 -2 -1 -2 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -2 -3 -1 -5 -2
Small Enterprises -3 -6 -3 -6 0
All Enterprises -2 -4 -2 -6 -2

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -18 -19 -1 -20 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises -30 -33 -3 -34 -1
Small Enterprises -32 -34 -2 -39 -5
All Enterprises -28 -31 -3 -33 -2

Financial Position (All industries)

Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 24 24 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 24 24 0
Small Enterprises 11 11 0
All Enterprises 17 17 0

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 26 27 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 28 27 -1
Small Enterprises 21 21 0
All Enterprises 23 24 +1

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2018
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -2 0 +2 4 +4
Medium-sized Enterprises -5 -3 +2 4 +7
Small Enterprises -8 -6 +2 1 +7
All Enterprises -6 -4 +2 3 +7

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 44 46 +2