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Tankan Outline (March 2017)

April 3, 2017
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,391 6,408 10,799 ( 99.4%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,082 1,036 2,118 ( 99.3%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,159 1,852 3,011 ( 99.2%)
Small Enterprises 2,150 3,520 5,670 ( 99.5%)

[Responding Period: February 27 to March 31]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  Dec. 2016 Survey March 2017 Survey
FY2016 104.90 107.30
1H 106.52 106.54
2H 103.36 108.01
FY2017 - 108.43
1H - 108.45
2H - 108.42
Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  Dec. 2016 March 2017 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 8)      
10 12 +2 11 -1
Nonmanufacturing   ( 16)      
18 20 +2 16 -4
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 2)      
6 11 +5 4 -7
Nonmanufacturing   ( 9)      
16 17 +1 10 -7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( -4)      
1 5 +4 0 -5
Nonmanufacturing   ( -2)      
2 4 +2 -1 -5
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 2)      
7 10 +3 4 -6

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing) (%points)
  Dec. 2016 March 2017 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -9 -8 +1 -9 -1
Small Enterprises -24 -19 +5 -22 -3
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -6 -4 +2 -3 +1
Small Enterprises -17 -12 +5 -12 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 11 8 -3 - -
Small Enterprises 12 10 -2 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 11 8 -3 - -
Small Enterprises 18 15 -3 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -7 -3 +4 -2 +1
Small Enterprises -8 -4 +4 -3 +1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises 3 16 +13 16 0
Small Enterprises 12 24 +12 33 +9
Sales (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -3.4 +0.3 1.4 -
Nonmanufacturing -5.0 -2.2 1.4 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing -0.2 +0.2 2.4 -
Nonmanufacturing 0.4 -0.9 2.6 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -0.8 0.0 1.3 -
Nonmanufacturing -0.5 0.0 -0.1 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries -2.4 -0.7 1.3 -

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

Current Profits (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -11.4 +9.2 -0.3 -
Nonmanufacturing -3.7 +1.3 -0.1 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.1 +5.7 -0.2 -
Nonmanufacturing 2.7 +3.0 -0.3 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.3 +5.2 1.0 -
Nonmanufacturing -0.6 +3.7 -6.5 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries -4.1 +4.4 -1.1 -
Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, %points)
  FY2016
(Forecast)
Changes FY2017
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.55 +0.53 6.44 -
Nonmanufacturing 5.42 +0.19 5.34 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.11 +0.26 4.98 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.36 +0.13 3.26 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 4.34 +0.21 4.33 -
Nonmanufacturing 3.48 +0.12 3.26 -
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.82 +0.24 4.70 -
Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses * (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 6.2 -4.5 5.3 -
Nonmanufacturing -1.1 -3.5 -2.0 -
All industries 1.4 -3.9 0.6 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing -1.3 -3.6 16.5 -
Nonmanufacturing -6.4 -0.5 18.1 -
All industries -4.6 -1.7 17.5 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -9.4 +2.0 -10.6 -
Nonmanufacturing 6.3 +10.5 -27.5 -
All industries 1.1 +7.8 -22.6 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.1 -3.3 4.4 -
Nonmanufacturing -0.5 -0.4 -4.4 -
All industries 0.4 -1.4 -1.3 -
  • Excludes Software and R&D Investment.
Software, R&D and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
FY2017
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 2.9 -1.5 3.1 -
Nonmanufacturing 1.0 -3.4 0.5 -
All industries 2.0 -2.4 1.9 -
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.5 -3.4 16.3 -
Nonmanufacturing -8.5 -1.5 20.4 -
All industries -5.0 -2.3 18.7 -
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing -8.8 +0.7 -4.9 -
Nonmanufacturing 8.1 +6.5 -21.7 -
All industries 1.7 +4.5 -15.9 -
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 1.5 -1.5 3.7 -
Nonmanufacturing 0.7 -1.5 -0.7 -
All industries 1.1 -1.5 1.5 -
Production Capacity (Manufacturing) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  Dec. 2016 March 2017 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 1 1 0 1 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 3 2 -1 -1 -3
Small Enterprises 2 0 -2 -3 -3
All Enterprises 2 0 -2 -1 -1
Employment Conditions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  Dec. 2016 March 2017 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -13 -15 -2 -15 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -23 -26 -3 -27 -1
Small Enterprises -24 -28 -4 -30 -2
All Enterprises -21 -25 -4 -26 -1
Financial Position (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  Dec. 2016 March 2017 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 24 24 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 22 24 +2
Small Enterprises 9 9 0
All Enterprises 15 16 +1
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2016 March 2017 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 27 27 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 28 28 0
Small Enterprises 21 20 -1
All Enterprises 24 24 0
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  Dec. 2016 March 2017 Change
between
Dec. and
March
June 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises -11 -4 +7 4 +8
Medium-sized Enterprises -16 -9 +7 1 +10
Small Enterprises -16 -12 +4 0 +12
All Enterprises -15 -9 +6 2 +11
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  Dec. 2016 March 2017 Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 41 40 -1