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Tankan Outline (December 2016)

December 14, 2016
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Tankan Summary

Number of Sample Enterprises
	Manu- facturing	Nonmanu- facturing	Total	(Response rate)
All Enterprises	4,393	6,398	10,791	( 99.6%)
of which Large Enterprises	1,084	1,038	2,122	( 99.6%)
Medium-sized Enterprises	1,167	1,846	3,013	( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises	2,142	3,514	5,656	( 99.8%)

[Responding Period: November 14 to December 13]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
	June 2016 Survey	Sept. 2016 Survey	Dec. 2016 Survey
FY2015	119.87	-	-
1H	120.98	-	-
2H	118.73	-	-
FY2016	111.41	107.92	104.90
1H	111.46	108.44	106.52
2H	111.36	107.42	103.36

[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
	Sept. 2016	Dec. 2016	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2017 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 6)
Manufacturing	6	10	+4	8	-2
Nonmanufacturing		( 16)
Nonmanufacturing	18	18	0	16	-2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( 1)
Manufacturing	3	6	+3	2	-4
Nonmanufacturing		( 10)
Nonmanufacturing	15	16	+1	9	-7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing		( -5)
Manufacturing	-3	1	+4	-4	-5
Nonmanufacturing		( -2)
Nonmanufacturing	1	2	+1	-2	-4
[All Enterprises]
All industries		( 2)
All industries	5	7	+2	2	-5

(Notes)

FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
	Sept. 2016	Dec. 2016	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2017 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-11	-9	+2	-9	0
Small Enterprises	-27	-24	+3	-24	0
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises	-7	-6	+1	-7	-1
Small Enterprises	-17	-17	0	-16	+1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	12	11	-1	-	-
Small Enterprises	13	12	-1	-	-
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises	11	11	0	-	-
Small Enterprises	17	18	+1	-	-
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	-10	-7	+3	-6	+1
Small Enterprises	-12	-8	+4	-8	0
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises	-4	3	+7	9	+6
Small Enterprises	5	12	+7	23	+11

[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2015	Revision rate	FY2016 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-2.3	-	-3.7	-2.0
Nonmanufacturing	-2.8	-	-2.8	-1.3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	0.5	-	-0.4	-0.4
Nonmanufacturing	0.5	-	1.3	-0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	0.6	-	-0.9	-0.5
Nonmanufacturing	-0.3	-	-0.5	+0.5
[All Enterprises]
All industries	-1.3	-	-1.6	-0.8

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2015	Revision rate	FY2016 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	-5.3	-	-18.9	-5.0
Nonmanufacturing	11.5	-	-4.9	-0.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	8.0	-	-5.3	+0.8
Nonmanufacturing	9.5	-	-0.3	+2.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.4	-	3.9	+3.6
Nonmanufacturing	10.1	-	-4.1	+7.3
[All Enterprises]
All industries	4.8	-	-8.2	-0.1

[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
	FY2015	Changes	FY2016 (Forecast)	Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	7.15	-	6.02	-0.19
Nonmanufacturing	5.35	-	5.23	+0.03
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	5.09	-	4.85	+0.06
Nonmanufacturing	3.28	-	3.23	+0.09
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	3.94	-	4.13	+0.16
Nonmanufacturing	3.48	-	3.36	+0.21
[All Enterprises]
All industries	4.91	-	4.58	+0.03

[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2015	Revision rate	FY2016 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	8.4	-	11.2	-1.4
Nonmanufacturing	1.0	-	2.5	-0.4
All industries	3.4	-	5.5	-0.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	9.3	-	2.4	-1.9
Nonmanufacturing	8.3	-	-5.9	+2.6
All industries	8.7	-	-3.0	+0.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	11.5	-	-11.2	+4.8
Nonmanufacturing	5.2	-	-3.8	+2.3
All industries	7.2	-	-6.2	+3.1
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	9.1	-	5.6	-0.5
Nonmanufacturing	2.9	-	-0.1	+0.6
All industries	5.0	-	1.8	+0.2

Excludes Software Investment.

[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses] (Year-to-year % change)
	FY2015	Revision rate	FY2016 (Forecast)	Revision rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing	8.0	-	9.5	-1.5
Nonmanufacturing	-0.1	-	4.9	-1.5
All industries	2.8	-	6.6	-1.5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing	9.4	-	3.0	-2.7
Nonmanufacturing	8.1	-	-6.5	0.0
All industries	8.6	-	-3.2	-1.0
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing	14.9	-	-11.3	+3.3
Nonmanufacturing	-1.0	-	2.3	-0.8
All industries	4.2	-	-2.5	+0.5
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing	9.4	-	4.9	-1.0
Nonmanufacturing	1.0	-	2.6	-1.1
All industries	3.9	-	3.4	-1.1

[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
	Sept. 2016	Dec. 2016	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2017 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	3	1	-2	2	+1
Medium-sized Enterprises	4	3	-1	1	-2
Small Enterprises	3	2	-1	0	-2
All Enterprises	3	2	-1	1	-1

[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
	Sept. 2016	Dec. 2016	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2017 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-12	-13	-1	-13	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	-20	-23	-3	-23	0
Small Enterprises	-20	-24	-4	-27	-3
All Enterprises	-19	-21	-2	-23	-2

[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
	Sept. 2016	Dec. 2016	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	24	24	0
Medium-sized Enterprises	22	22	0
Small Enterprises	8	9	+1
All Enterprises	15	15	0

[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
	Sept. 2016	Dec. 2016	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	28	27	-1
Medium-sized Enterprises	28	28	0
Small Enterprises	21	21	0
All Enterprises	25	24	-1

[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
	Sept. 2016	Dec. 2016	Change between Sept. and Dec.	March 2017 (Forecast)	Change between Dec. and March
Large Enterprises	-16	-11	+5	2	+13
Medium-sized Enterprises	-22	-16	+6	-3	+13
Small Enterprises	-21	-16	+5	-3	+13
All Enterprises	-20	-15	+5	-2	+13

[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
	Sept. 2016	Dec. 2016	Change between Sept. and Dec.
Large Enterprises	43	41	-2