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Tankan Outline (December 2016)

December 14, 2016
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,393 6,398 10,791 ( 99.6%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,084 1,038 2,122 ( 99.6%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,167 1,846 3,013 ( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises 2,142 3,514 5,656 ( 99.8%)

[Responding Period: November 14 to December 13]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  June 2016 Survey Sept. 2016 Survey Dec. 2016 Survey
FY2015 119.87 - -
1H 120.98 - -
2H 118.73 - -
FY2016 111.41 107.92 104.90
1H 111.46 108.44 106.52
2H 111.36 107.42 103.36
[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  Sept. 2016 Dec. 2016 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 6)      
6 10 +4 8 -2
Nonmanufacturing   ( 16)      
18 18 0 16 -2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( 1)      
3 6 +3 2 -4
Nonmanufacturing   ( 10)      
15 16 +1 9 -7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   ( -5)      
-3 1 +4 -4 -5
Nonmanufacturing   ( -2)      
1 2 +1 -2 -4
[All Enterprises]
All industries   ( 2)      
5 7 +2 2 -5

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
  Sept. 2016 Dec. 2016 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -11 -9 +2 -9 0
Small Enterprises -27 -24 +3 -24 0
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -7 -6 +1 -7 -1
Small Enterprises -17 -17 0 -16 +1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 12 11 -1 - -
Small Enterprises 13 12 -1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 11 11 0 - -
Small Enterprises 17 18 +1 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -10 -7 +3 -6 +1
Small Enterprises -12 -8 +4 -8 0
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -4 3 +7 9 +6
Small Enterprises 5 12 +7 23 +11
[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -2.3 - -3.7 -2.0
Nonmanufacturing -2.8 - -2.8 -1.3
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.5 - -0.4 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 - 1.3 -0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.6 - -0.9 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing -0.3 - -0.5 +0.5
[All Enterprises]
All industries -1.3 - -1.6 -0.8

(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -5.3 - -18.9 -5.0
Nonmanufacturing 11.5 - -4.9 -0.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.0 - -5.3 +0.8
Nonmanufacturing 9.5 - -0.3 +2.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.4 - 3.9 +3.6
Nonmanufacturing 10.1 - -4.1 +7.3
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.8 - -8.2 -0.1
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
  FY2015 Changes FY2016
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.15 - 6.02 -0.19
Nonmanufacturing 5.35 - 5.23 +0.03
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.09 - 4.85 +0.06
Nonmanufacturing 3.28 - 3.23 +0.09
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.94 - 4.13 +0.16
Nonmanufacturing 3.48 - 3.36 +0.21
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.91 - 4.58 +0.03
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.4 - 11.2 -1.4
Nonmanufacturing 1.0 - 2.5 -0.4
All industries 3.4 - 5.5 -0.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.3 - 2.4 -1.9
Nonmanufacturing 8.3 - -5.9 +2.6
All industries 8.7 - -3.0 +0.9
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.5 - -11.2 +4.8
Nonmanufacturing 5.2 - -3.8 +2.3
All industries 7.2 - -6.2 +3.1
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.1 - 5.6 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing 2.9 - -0.1 +0.6
All industries 5.0 - 1.8 +0.2
  • Excludes Software Investment.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.0 - 9.5 -1.5
Nonmanufacturing -0.1 - 4.9 -1.5
All industries 2.8 - 6.6 -1.5
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.4 - 3.0 -2.7
Nonmanufacturing 8.1 - -6.5 0.0
All industries 8.6 - -3.2 -1.0
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 14.9 - -11.3 +3.3
Nonmanufacturing -1.0 - 2.3 -0.8
All industries 4.2 - -2.5 +0.5
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.4 - 4.9 -1.0
Nonmanufacturing 1.0 - 2.6 -1.1
All industries 3.9 - 3.4 -1.1
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  Sept. 2016 Dec. 2016 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises 3 1 -2 2 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 4 3 -1 1 -2
Small Enterprises 3 2 -1 0 -2
All Enterprises 3 2 -1 1 -1
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  Sept. 2016 Dec. 2016 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -12 -13 -1 -13 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -20 -23 -3 -23 0
Small Enterprises -20 -24 -4 -27 -3
All Enterprises -19 -21 -2 -23 -2
[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  Sept. 2016 Dec. 2016 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 24 24 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 22 22 0
Small Enterprises 8 9 +1
All Enterprises 15 15 0
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  Sept. 2016 Dec. 2016 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 28 27 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 28 28 0
Small Enterprises 21 21 0
All Enterprises 25 24 -1
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  Sept. 2016 Dec. 2016 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
March 2017
(Forecast)
Change
between
Dec. and
March
Large Enterprises -16 -11 +5 2 +13
Medium-sized Enterprises -22 -16 +6 -3 +13
Small Enterprises -21 -16 +5 -3 +13
All Enterprises -20 -15 +5 -2 +13
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  Sept. 2016 Dec. 2016 Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 43 41 -2