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Tankan Outline (September 2016)

October 3, 2016
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,401 6,431 10,832 (99.5%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,084 1,039 2,123 (99.7%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,169 1,854 3,023 (99.4%)
Small Enterprises 2,148 3,538 5,686 (99.5%)

[Responding Period: August 29 to September 30]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises (yen per US dollar)
  June 2016 Survey Sept.2016 Survey
FY2015 119.87 -
1H 120.98 -
2H 118.73 -
FY2016 111.41 107.92
1H 111.46 108.44
2H 111.36 107.42
[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  June 2016 Sept. 2016 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (6)      
6 6 0 6 0
Nonmanufacturing   (17)      
19 18 -1 16 -2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (0)      
1 3 +2 1 -2
Nonmanufacturing   (10)      
14 15 +1 10 -5
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (-7)      
-5 -3 +2 -5 -2
Nonmanufacturing   (-4)      
0 1 +1 -2 -3
[All Enterprises]
All industries   (2)      
4 5 +1 2 -3

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
  June 2016 Sept. 2016 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -10 -11 -1 -11 0
Small Enterprises -26 -27 -1 -26 +1
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -8 -7 +1 -8 -1
Small Enterprises -17 -17 0 -17 0
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 13 12 -1 - -
Small Enterprises 15 13 -2 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 13 11 -2 - -
Small Enterprises 20 17 -3 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -12 -10 +2 -10 0
Small Enterprises -12 -12 0 -13 -1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -2 -4 -2 2 +6
Small Enterprises 7 5 -2 14 +9
[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -2.3 - -1.7 -1.2
Nonmanufacturing -2.8 - -1.6 -0.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.5 - 0.0 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 - 1.4 -0.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.6 - -0.3 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing -0.3 - -1.0 -0.4
[All Enterprises]
All industries -1.3 - -0.9 -0.7

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -5.3 - -14.6 -3.3
Nonmanufacturing 11.5 - -4.2 -0.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.0 - -6.0 -1.9
Nonmanufacturing 9.5 - -3.1 +0.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.4 - 0.3 -0.8
Nonmanufacturing 10.1 - -10.6 +2.5
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.8 - -8.1 -1.0
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
  FY2015 Changes FY2016
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.15 - 6.21 -0.14
Nonmanufacturing 5.35 - 5.20 -0.01
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.09 - 4.79 -0.06
Nonmanufacturing 3.28 - 3.14 +0.04
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.94 - 3.97 0.00
Nonmanufacturing 3.48 - 3.15 +0.09
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.91 - 4.55 -0.01
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.4 - 12.7 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1.0 - 2.9 +0.1
All industries 3.4 - 6.3 +0.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.3 - 4.4 -1.4
Nonmanufacturing 8.3 - -8.3 +2.1
All industries 8.7 - -3.9 +0.7
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.5 - -15.3 +3.0
Nonmanufacturing 5.2 - -6.0 +8.6
All industries 7.2 - -9.0 +6.9
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.1 - 6.1 +0.2
Nonmanufacturing 2.9 - -0.6 +1.9
All industries 5.0 - 1.7 +1.3
  • Excludes Software Investment.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.0 - 11.2 -0.7
Nonmanufacturing -0.1 - 6.5 -0.9
All industries 2.8 - 8.2 -0.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.4 - 5.8 -1.6
Nonmanufacturing 8.1 - -6.5 +1.2
All industries 8.6 - -2.2 +0.1
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 14.9 - -14.1 +3.3
Nonmanufacturing -1.0 - 3.1 +6.0
All industries 4.2 - -3.0 +5.1
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.4 - 6.0 -0.3
Nonmanufacturing 1.0 - 3.8 +0.5
All industries 3.9 - 4.6 +0.2
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  June 2016 Sept. 2016 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 4 3 -1 3 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 5 4 -1 1 -3
Small Enterprises 3 3 0 0 -3
All Enterprises 4 3 -1 2 -1
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  June 2016 Sept. 2016 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -10 -12 -2 -13 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises -19 -20 -1 -22 -2
Small Enterprises -19 -20 -1 -25 -5
All Enterprises -17 -19 -2 -22 -3
[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  June 2016 Sept. 2016 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 24 24 0
Medium-sized Enterprises 21 22 +1
Small Enterprises 7 8 +1
All Enterprises 14 15 +1
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  June 2016 Sept. 2016 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 29 28 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 28 28 0
Small Enterprises 19 21 +2
All Enterprises 23 25 +2
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  June 2016 Sept. 2016 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -27 -16 +11 -4 +12
Medium-sized Enterprises -27 -22 +5 -7 +15
Small Enterprises -24 -21 +3 -9 +12
All Enterprises -26 -20 +6 -8 +12
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  June 2016 Sept. 2016 Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 39 43 +4