Tankan Outline (September 2016)
October 3, 2016
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,401 | 6,431 | 10,832 | (99.5%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,084 | 1,039 | 2,123 | (99.7%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,169 | 1,854 | 3,023 | (99.4%) |
Small Enterprises | 2,148 | 3,538 | 5,686 | (99.5%) |
[Responding Period: August 29 to September 30]
June 2016 Survey | Sept.2016 Survey | |
---|---|---|
FY2015 | 119.87 | - |
1H | 120.98 | - |
2H | 118.73 | - |
FY2016 | 111.41 | 107.92 |
1H | 111.46 | 108.44 |
2H | 111.36 | 107.42 |
June 2016 | Sept. 2016 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (6) | ||||
6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (17) | ||||
19 | 18 | -1 | 16 | -2 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (0) | ||||
1 | 3 | +2 | 1 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (10) | ||||
14 | 15 | +1 | 10 | -5 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | (-7) | ||||
-5 | -3 | +2 | -5 | -2 | |
Nonmanufacturing | (-4) | ||||
0 | 1 | +1 | -2 | -3 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | (2) | ||||
4 | 5 | +1 | 2 | -3 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
June 2016 | Sept. 2016 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -10 | -11 | -1 | -11 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -26 | -27 | -1 | -26 | +1 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -8 | -7 | +1 | -8 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -17 | -17 | 0 | -17 | 0 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 13 | 12 | -1 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 15 | 13 | -2 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 13 | 11 | -2 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 20 | 17 | -3 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -12 | -10 | +2 | -10 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -12 | -12 | 0 | -13 | -1 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -2 | -4 | -2 | 2 | +6 |
Small Enterprises | 7 | 5 | -2 | 14 | +9 |
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -2.3 | - | -1.7 | -1.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | -2.8 | - | -1.6 | -0.8 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.5 | - | 0.0 | -0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.5 | - | 1.4 | -0.6 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 0.6 | - | -0.3 | -0.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.3 | - | -1.0 | -0.4 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | -1.3 | - | -0.9 | -0.7 |
(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | -5.3 | - | -14.6 | -3.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 11.5 | - | -4.2 | -0.8 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.0 | - | -6.0 | -1.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 9.5 | - | -3.1 | +0.6 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.4 | - | 0.3 | -0.8 |
Nonmanufacturing | 10.1 | - | -10.6 | +2.5 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.8 | - | -8.1 | -1.0 |
FY2015 | Changes | FY2016 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.15 | - | 6.21 | -0.14 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.35 | - | 5.20 | -0.01 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.09 | - | 4.79 | -0.06 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.28 | - | 3.14 | +0.04 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.94 | - | 3.97 | 0.00 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.48 | - | 3.15 | +0.09 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.91 | - | 4.55 | -0.01 |
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.4 | - | 12.7 | -0.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.0 | - | 2.9 | +0.1 |
All industries | 3.4 | - | 6.3 | +0.1 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.3 | - | 4.4 | -1.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.3 | - | -8.3 | +2.1 |
All industries | 8.7 | - | -3.9 | +0.7 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 11.5 | - | -15.3 | +3.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 5.2 | - | -6.0 | +8.6 |
All industries | 7.2 | - | -9.0 | +6.9 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.1 | - | 6.1 | +0.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 2.9 | - | -0.6 | +1.9 |
All industries | 5.0 | - | 1.7 | +1.3 |
- Excludes Software Investment.
FY2015 | Revision rate |
FY2016 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.0 | - | 11.2 | -0.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.1 | - | 6.5 | -0.9 |
All industries | 2.8 | - | 8.2 | -0.8 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.4 | - | 5.8 | -1.6 |
Nonmanufacturing | 8.1 | - | -6.5 | +1.2 |
All industries | 8.6 | - | -2.2 | +0.1 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 14.9 | - | -14.1 | +3.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | -1.0 | - | 3.1 | +6.0 |
All industries | 4.2 | - | -3.0 | +5.1 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.4 | - | 6.0 | -0.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.0 | - | 3.8 | +0.5 |
All industries | 3.9 | - | 4.6 | +0.2 |
June 2016 | Sept. 2016 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 4 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 5 | 4 | -1 | 1 | -3 |
Small Enterprises | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
All Enterprises | 4 | 3 | -1 | 2 | -1 |
June 2016 | Sept. 2016 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -10 | -12 | -2 | -13 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -19 | -20 | -1 | -22 | -2 |
Small Enterprises | -19 | -20 | -1 | -25 | -5 |
All Enterprises | -17 | -19 | -2 | -22 | -3 |
June 2016 | Sept. 2016 | Change between June and Sept. |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 24 | 24 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 21 | 22 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 7 | 8 | +1 |
All Enterprises | 14 | 15 | +1 |
June 2016 | Sept. 2016 | Change between June and Sept. |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 29 | 28 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 28 | 28 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | 19 | 21 | +2 |
All Enterprises | 23 | 25 | +2 |
June 2016 | Sept. 2016 | Change between June and Sept. |
Dec. 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -27 | -16 | +11 | -4 | +12 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -27 | -22 | +5 | -7 | +15 |
Small Enterprises | -24 | -21 | +3 | -9 | +12 |
All Enterprises | -26 | -20 | +6 | -8 | +12 |
June 2016 | Sept. 2016 | Change between June and Sept. |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 39 | 43 | +4 |