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Tankan Outline (June 2016)

July 1, 2016
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manu-
facturing
Nonmanu-
facturing
Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 4,412 6,450 10,862 (99.7%)
of which Large Enterprises 1,085 1,041 2,126 (99.7%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 1,170 1,860 3,030 (99.6%)
Small Enterprises 2,157 3,549 5,706 (99.7%)

[Responding Period: May 30 to June 30]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises(yen per US dollar)
  March 2016 Survey June 2016 Survey
FY2015 119.80 119.87
1H 120.93 120.98
2H 118.69 118.73
FY2016 117.46 111.41
1H 117.45 111.46
2H 117.46 111.36
[Business Conditions] (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable", %points)
  March 2016 June 2016 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (3)      
6 6 0 6 0
Nonmanufacturing   (17)      
22 19 -3 17 -2
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (-2)      
5 1 -4 0 -1
Nonmanufacturing   (9)      
17 14 -3 10 -4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing   (-6)      
-4 -5 -1 -7 -2
Nonmanufacturing   (-3)      
4 0 -4 -4 -4
[All Enterprises]
All industries   (1)      
7 4 -3 2 -2

(Notes)

  1. FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H...first half (April - September)
    2H...second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
[Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)] (%points)
  March 2016 June 2016 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -13 -10 +3 -11 -1
Small Enterprises -26 -26 0 -26 0
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply")
Large Enterprises -11 -8 +3 -8 0
Small Enterprises -18 -17 +1 -16 +1
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 15 13 -2 - -
Small Enterprises 14 15 +1 - -
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient")
Large Enterprises 14 13 -1 - -
Small Enterprises 20 20 0 - -
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -15 -12 +3 -9 +3
Small Enterprises -11 -12 -1 -13 -1
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall")
Large Enterprises -8 -2 +6 4 +6
Small Enterprises 7 7 0 15 +8
[Sales] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -2.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7
Nonmanufacturing -2.8 -1.2 -0.8 -1.7
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.5 -0.1 0.7 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing 0.5 +0.1 2.0 +0.4
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 0.6 +0.5 0.2 +0.2
Nonmanufacturing -0.3 +0.7 -0.6 +0.5
[All Enterprises]
All industries -1.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5

(Note) Revision
rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.

[Current Profits] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing -5.3 -1.8 -11.6 -11.6
Nonmanufacturing 11.5 -0.4 -3.4 -1.8
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.0 +0.3 -4.2 -3.1
Nonmanufacturing 9.5 +4.3 -3.7 -1.6
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.4 +3.1 1.1 +1.8
Nonmanufacturing 10.1 +3.8 -12.8 -1.7
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.8 +0.4 -7.2 -4.7
[Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] (%, %points)
  FY2015 Changes FY2016
(Forecast)
Changes
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 7.15 -0.08 6.35 -0.78
Nonmanufacturing 5.35 +0.05 5.21 0.00
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 5.09 +0.02 4.85 -0.14
Nonmanufacturing 3.28 +0.13 3.10 -0.07
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 3.94 +0.10 3.97 +0.06
Nonmanufacturing 3.48 +0.10 3.06 -0.07
[All Enterprises]
All industries 4.91 +0.04 4.56 -0.21
[Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses *] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.4 -4.3 12.8 +4.7
Nonmanufacturing 1.0 -6.6 2.7 -1.1
All industries 3.4 -5.8 6.2 +0.9
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.3 +1.7 5.8 +2.5
Nonmanufacturing 8.3 +3.9 -10.2 +3.7
All industries 8.7 +3.1 -4.6 +3.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 11.5 +6.4 -17.8 +12.3
Nonmanufacturing 5.2 +1.7 -13.5 +7.3
All industries 7.2 +3.2 -14.9 +8.8
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.1 -1.5 6.0 +5.3
Nonmanufacturing 2.9 -3.5 -2.5 +1.0
All industries 5.0 -2.8 0.4 +2.5
  • Excludes Software Investment.
[Software and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses] (Year-to-year % change)
  FY2015 Revision
rate
FY2016
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
[Large Enterprises]
Manufacturing 8.0 -3.5 12.0 +4.3
Nonmanufacturing -0.1 -6.6 7.5 -0.7
All industries 2.8 -5.5 9.1 +1.1
[Medium-sized Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.4 +1.3 7.5 +1.7
Nonmanufacturing 8.1 +2.8 -7.7 +0.9
All industries 8.6 +2.3 -2.3 +1.2
[Small Enterprises]
Manufacturing 14.9 +6.6 -16.8 +12.1
Nonmanufacturing -1.0 +0.2 -2.7 +6.0
All industries 4.2 +2.4 -7.7 +7.9
[All Enterprises]
Manufacturing 9.4 -1.2 6.3 +4.8
Nonmanufacturing 1.0 -4.0 3.2 +0.6
All industries 3.9 -3.0 4.3 +2.1
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity", %points)
  March 2016 June 2016 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 4 4 0 3 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 4 5 +1 2 -3
Small Enterprises 3 3 0 0 -3
All Enterprises 4 4 0 2 -2
[Employment Conditions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment", %points)
  March 2016 June 2016 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -11 -10 +1 -10 0
Medium-sized Enterprises -21 -19 +2 -21 -2
Small Enterprises -20 -19 +1 -23 -4
All Enterprises -18 -17 +1 -20 -3
[Financial Position (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight", %points)
  March 2016 June 2016 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 22 24 +2
Medium-sized Enterprises 20 21 +1
Small Enterprises 6 7 +1
All Enterprises 13 14 +1
[Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe", %points)
  March 2016 June 2016 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 28 29 +1
Medium-sized Enterprises 27 28 +1
Small Enterprises 20 19 -1
All Enterprises 23 23 0
[Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)] (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall", %points)
  March 2016 June 2016 Change
between
March and
June
Sept. 2016
(Forecast)
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises -31 -27 +4 -10 +17
Medium-sized Enterprises -27 -27 0 -12 +15
Small Enterprises -24 -24 0 -13 +11
All Enterprises -26 -26 0 -12 +14
[Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)] (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe", %points)
  March 2016 June 2016 Change
between
March and
June
Large Enterprises 38 39 +1