Tankan Outline (December 2015)
December 14, 2015
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department
Manu- facturing |
Nonmanu- facturing |
Total | (Response rate) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
All Enterprises | 4,462 | 6,509 | 10,971 | ( 99.6%) |
of which Large Enterprises | 1,091 | 1,043 | 2,134 | ( 99.6%) |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 1,181 | 1,877 | 3,058 | ( 99.4%) |
Small Enterprises | 2,190 | 3,589 | 5,779 | ( 99.6%) |
[Responding Period: November 11 to December 11]
June 2015 Survey | Sept. 2015 Survey | Dec. 2015 Survey | |
---|---|---|---|
FY2014 | 108.96 | - | - |
1H | 103.17 | - | - |
2H | 114.29 | - | - |
FY2015 | 115.62 | 117.39 | 119.40 |
1H | 115.59 | 117.50 | 120.84 |
2H | 115.65 | 117.28 | 118.00 |
Sept. 2015 | Dec. 2015 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 10) | ||||
12 | 12 | 0 | 7 | -5 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 19) | ||||
25 | 25 | 0 | 18 | -7 | |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( 4) | ||||
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 13) | ||||
17 | 19 | +2 | 12 | -7 | |
[Small Enterprises] | |||||
Manufacturing | ( -2) | ||||
0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -4 | |
Nonmanufacturing | ( 1) | ||||
3 | 5 | +2 | 0 | -5 | |
[All Enterprises] | |||||
All industries | ( 5) | ||||
8 | 9 | +1 | 3 | -6 |
(Notes)
- FY...fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
1H...first half (April - September)
2H...second half (October - March of the following year) - Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.
Sept. 2015 | Dec. 2015 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -10 | -10 | 0 | -11 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | -23 | -24 | -1 | -26 | -2 |
Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -8 | -9 | -1 | -8 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | -14 | -17 | -3 | -16 | +1 |
Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 14 | 14 | 0 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 14 | 14 | 0 | - | - |
Wholesalers' Inventory Level (Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 12 | 12 | 0 | - | - |
Small Enterprises | 20 | 20 | 0 | - | - |
Change in Output Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | -7 | -11 | -4 | -11 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -6 | -9 | -3 | -11 | -2 |
Change in Input Prices (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall") | |||||
Large Enterprises | 4 | -2 | -6 | 3 | +5 |
Small Enterprises | 22 | 14 | -8 | 19 | +5 |
FY2014 | Revision rate |
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 1.3 | - | -0.3 | -1.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.5 | - | -1.6 | -1.7 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 1.9 | - | 1.6 | 0.0 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.2 | - | 0.8 | -0.3 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 1.2 | - | 0.1 | -0.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.0 | - | -0.5 | 0.0 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 0.6 | - | -0.5 | -0.8 |
(Note)Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey.
FY2014 | Revision rate |
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 11.5 | - | 3.3 | -0.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.7 | - | 9.9 | +4.0 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 11.8 | - | 8.6 | +2.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | -0.6 | - | 3.1 | +4.1 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.6 | - | 3.1 | +0.2 |
Nonmanufacturing | 0.8 | - | 1.5 | +2.6 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 5.9 | - | 5.4 | +2.0 |
FY2014 | Changes | FY2015 (Forecast) |
Changes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.38 | - | 7.64 | +0.05 |
Nonmanufacturing | 4.66 | - | 5.20 | +0.28 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 4.74 | - | 5.07 | +0.11 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.01 | - | 3.08 | +0.13 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 3.83 | - | 3.95 | +0.02 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.16 | - | 3.22 | +0.08 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
All industries | 4.63 | - | 4.90 | +0.14 |
FY2014 | Revision rate |
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 5.6 | - | 15.5 | -2.7 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.0 | - | 8.5 | +1.3 |
All industries | 5.9 | - | 10.8 | -0.1 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.7 | - | 11.3 | +1.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.9 | - | 1.3 | +3.4 |
All industries | 4.2 | - | 4.8 | +2.5 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.6 | - | 1.5 | +3.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | -5.0 | - | -1.0 | +7.6 |
All industries | -0.8 | - | -0.2 | +6.3 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.8 | - | 12.2 | -1.1 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.1 | - | 5.6 | +2.7 |
All industries | 4.3 | - | 7.8 | +1.3 |
- Excludes Software Investment.
FY2014 | Revision rate |
FY2015 (Forecast) |
Revision rate |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
[Large Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 6.2 | - | 14.2 | -2.5 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.3 | - | 8.8 | -0.2 |
All industries | 4.3 | - | 10.7 | -1.1 |
[Medium-sized Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 8.4 | - | 12.3 | +0.3 |
Nonmanufacturing | 6.2 | - | 3.6 | +1.9 |
All industries | 7.0 | - | 6.7 | +1.3 |
[Small Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 9.1 | - | 4.6 | +1.9 |
Nonmanufacturing | 1.3 | - | -1.7 | +6.5 |
All industries | 3.7 | - | 0.3 | +4.9 |
[All Enterprises] | ||||
Manufacturing | 7.0 | - | 12.3 | -1.4 |
Nonmanufacturing | 3.3 | - | 6.1 | +1.1 |
All industries | 4.6 | - | 8.3 | +0.2 |
Sept. 2015 | Dec. 2015 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 1 | 3 | +2 | 3 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | -1 |
Small Enterprises | 3 | 4 | +1 | 2 | -2 |
All Enterprises | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 |
Sept. 2015 | Dec. 2015 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -9 | -12 | -3 | -12 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -18 | -21 | -3 | -21 | 0 |
Small Enterprises | -19 | -21 | -2 | -23 | -2 |
All Enterprises | -16 | -19 | -3 | -20 | -1 |
Sept. 2015 | Dec. 2015 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 22 | 22 | 0 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 19 | 20 | +1 |
Small Enterprises | 6 | 6 | 0 |
All Enterprises | 12 | 13 | +1 |
Sept. 2015 | Dec. 2015 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 27 | 26 | -1 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | 23 | 25 | +2 |
Small Enterprises | 16 | 17 | +1 |
All Enterprises | 20 | 20 | 0 |
Sept. 2015 | Dec. 2015 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
March 2016 (Forecast) |
Change between Dec. and March |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | -5 | -5 | 0 | 2 | +7 |
Medium-sized Enterprises | -7 | -7 | 0 | 1 | +8 |
Small Enterprises | -8 | -8 | 0 | 0 | +8 |
All Enterprises | -8 | -7 | +1 | 1 | +8 |
Sept. 2015 | Dec. 2015 | Change between Sept. and Dec. |
|
---|---|---|---|
Large Enterprises | 32 | 33 | +1 |